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The highs and lows of the last few weeks have proved overwhelming for many Syrians. The incredible scenes of celebration across Syrian cities on Friday were illustrative of the elation of being Assad-free for the first time in 53 years. Syrians have awaited eons to enjoy this moment and they should be allowed to, given all the horrors of those years.
But if only joy could transition Syria to a peaceful, flourishing and secure state. Hard work and struggles lie ahead. This course can only be navigated successfully and in good order with the constructive and positive assistance of regional and international actors.
A degree of humility is required. Barely a single actor has had a constructive and successful history in its dealings with Syria. At times, many states excused Bashar Assad or even propped up his regime. Those that actively got involved in Syria over the last 14 years did so largely for their own narrow self-interests and rarely for those of the Syrian people. Rather than help unify Syria, their actions all too often polarized it. Some backed extremist groups, giving them arms, though never enough to topple the dictator.
Europe and the US have increasingly abandoned their responsibilities to Syrians, cutting their aid and putting up immense barriers to asylum seekers. Most European states barely waited until Assad had cleared Syrian airspace before announcing a pause in asylum applications from Syrians.
What can major international actors do? For starters, they should not assume that they know Syria. The country has changed, its people have been traumatized and polarized. Few people have had access to Syria and, if they have, not to all of it. Assumptions must be challenged at every stage.
This course can only be navigated successfully with the constructive assistance of regional and international actors
Chris Doyle
Listening to Syrians of all identities and backgrounds is therefore paramount, with a focus on those inside the country. In writing this article, I relied heavily on Syrian input. Remember, many Syrians have not been able to travel around their country; they have effectively been imprisoned in their own areas. There are no shortcuts. Politicians and diplomats will have to reach out to multiple actors. Detailed research is vital.
External powers need to drop the historic obsession with who will run Syria. In such situations, they always want to know about the who. More important is the process of transition. This must be inclusive, legitimate and credible. It has to ensure that all components of Syrian society feel they have a stake in what is happening and a say in it.
Right now, this means ensuring that Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham does not try to assume all powers. Its leadership will be desperate to gain international recognition. This must be conditioned on an inclusive transition and basic standards of human rights. HTS does not have a history of sharing power, but it must be made to understand that this has to change.
If the transitional leadership heads in a decent direction, then those states that have proscribed HTS may consider lifting this status and engaging with it. Many might hope that HTS itself is dissolved, as part of a dismantling of all armed groups and forming of a varied array of political groupings.
The Syrian economy needs kickstarting. Syrians are well educated and entrepreneurial, but American and European sanctions will need to be eased. They can be phased out, with a priority on lifting those sanctions that impinge most on ordinary Syrians, 90 percent of whom live below the poverty line.
The humanitarian crisis must be addressed. Donor states should ensure that aid gets to those most in need across the country. Previously, the Assad regime manipulated international aid, concentrating it in loyalist areas. Development aid that helps Syrians get the country’s agricultural economy going again would be very sensible. Helping the education system get back to its feet would be a vital long-term investment.
HTS does not have a history of sharing power, but it must be made to understand that this has to change
Chris Doyle
Assad’s assets that are frozen in foreign states could be unfrozen for the benefit of the Syrian people. In the UK, for example, research Assad stashed away a cool £163 million ($206 million).
The UN must have a central role. It can bring the different actors together. It has a degree of legitimacy that other international bodies do not have.
But the UN must beef up its presence. Russia must not act as a spoiler, given its veto-wielding role in the Security Council. Ideally, the secretary-general should look for a new UN envoy to Syria, who would have a stronger mandate than Geir Pedersen, the current envoy. The new envoy should be an Arab with standing and gravitas, someone who is able to reach out to Syrians in their own language and be steeped in their culture.
Finally, international actors must restrain those external powers that are actively interfering at this delicate moment. Israel must end its savage bombing campaign and additional land grab. Turkiye must stop its campaign against the Kurds in return for political agreements and security guarantees.
All should understand that a strong and stable Syria will contribute to regional and international security, whereas a failing state will pose a massive ongoing threat.
- Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech